Title

A Revision to the Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball

Date

5-31-2018 1:20 PM

End Time

31-5-2018 1:40 PM

Location

HWC 204

Session Chair

Cheryl Beaver

Session Chair

Leanne Merrill

Session Title

Mathematics Capstone Project Presentations

Faculty Sponsor(s)

Leanne Merrill

Presentation Type

Presentation

Abstract

Using the completed previous year's baseball statistics, we will predict a teams' win percentage and thereby number of wins at the end of the upcoming baseball season. To do this, we will modify the already existing Pythagorean Expectation of baseball, originally developed by mathematician Bill James, which uses runs scored and runs against raised to a preset exponent (often approximately 2). In this paper we will show how one can predict a teams' wins by slightly changing the runs scored portion of the Pythagorean Expectation model, using the previous year’s offensive statistics and a teams’ 25-man Opening Day roster. We will also re-prove the Pythagorean Expectation using Miller’s method to show the reason why this probabilistic model is important to our predictions.

This document is currently not available here.

Share

COinS
 
May 31st, 1:20 PM May 31st, 1:40 PM

A Revision to the Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball

HWC 204

Using the completed previous year's baseball statistics, we will predict a teams' win percentage and thereby number of wins at the end of the upcoming baseball season. To do this, we will modify the already existing Pythagorean Expectation of baseball, originally developed by mathematician Bill James, which uses runs scored and runs against raised to a preset exponent (often approximately 2). In this paper we will show how one can predict a teams' wins by slightly changing the runs scored portion of the Pythagorean Expectation model, using the previous year’s offensive statistics and a teams’ 25-man Opening Day roster. We will also re-prove the Pythagorean Expectation using Miller’s method to show the reason why this probabilistic model is important to our predictions.